Welcome to the first post of a new series here on UBU, "What If?". You will see a bunch of random speculation based on our opinions (along with some facts) about events that never actually happened.
The first installation of "What If?" will focus on the quarterback position. (disclaimer: this is not an OMG Denard sucks, I wish he never would have come to Michigan post. So if thats what you are looking for go away). What if, after coach Carr retired, instead of hiring Rich Rodriguez, Michigan had hired a coach to carry on the Pro-Style offensive tradition of such QBs as Drew Henson, Tom Brady and Chad Henne? Who would be our starting QB right now?
First Data Point
I looked at only quarterbacks in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes. This would make our starting QB a red-shirt senior, true senior or junior, any of which is a reasonable assumption.
Second Data Point
As my second filter, I looked at quarterbacks ranked in the Top 15 of the Pro-style category on Rivals.com. Michigan had just come off a huge bowl win over Florida in Chad Henne's last game as a Wolverine. They had picked up the Top QB in the country the year before in Ryan Mallet who could have easily kept the on-field momentum going. So to assume that Michigan could have pulled a Top 15 QB in the following years does not seem like much of a stretch.
Notable QBs off the board: Josh Nunes (Stanford), Joe Boisture (MSU)
Remaining Pool: 45 quarterbacks
Third Data Point
The first two criteria were relatively easy, the third (and fourth) were a bit more difficult and obviously a bit more subjective. Michigan has a history of pulling great QBs from all over the country, but I made the assumption that if any of the Top 15 recruits in any of these years ended up committing to a home state school that Michigan would not have landed that player. I assumed the pull of the home state school would have been too much.
Notable QBs off the board: Matt Barkley (USC), Blaine Gabbert (Missouri), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas), Conner Wood (Texas)and AJ McCarron (Alabama)
Remaining Pool: 24 quarterbacks
Fourth Data Point
Ok, now it gets a bit more sketchy in terms of how things would have shaken out. My next assumption is that any player still available that ended up at a school that is typically considered a lower tier school and not a traditional football powerhouse would be eliminated. They may have been ranked relatively high by the scouting services, however other big time schools took passes so I assume MI would. I understand that the kids could have choosen the lesser school for any number of reasons, but I made the assumption they chose it because they had no other options.
Notable QBs off the board: Tom Savage (Rutgers)Sean Renfree (Duke), Ryan Mossakowski (Kentucky)
Remaining Pool: 15 quarterbacks
Fifth Data Point
To get back to something a bit more data oriented and help further narrow down the pool of candidates I turned to the physical stature of the players. Knowing that the preferrence would be to have a quarterback who has a tall stature and can stand in the pocket and make the throws over the OL, I chose to eliminate all QBs who were not taller than 6'2".
Notable QBs off the board: Aaron Murray (Georgia), Tajh Boyd (Clemson), Jake Heaps (BYU)
Remaining Pool: 10 quarterbacks
Sixth Data Point
To get down to a manageable list I felt I had to do one more elimination. For the final elimination I looked at the offer list and articles about the remaining 10 recruits to understand if they had childhood favorites, family in the area etc that would have been a tough final obstacle for Michigan to over come. The follow quartbacks were eliminated: Star Jackson (Alabama - 2nd choice was a RR led WVU, non-typical pro-style passer), Drew Allen (Oklahoma - Grew up Texas and Big12 fan, 3-star), Blake Bell (Oklahoma - From Kansas, but life long Sooner Fan), Zach Lee (LSU - Also given the opportunity to play baseball at LSU)and Taylor Graham (Ohio State - Grew up a Buckeye fan)
And the final list of who could have been Michigan's QB this year...
Dayne Crist (Notre Dame): Had Michigan offer and was previously being recruited by Carr. Was ok with leaving home in California.
Andrew Luck (Stanford): Played high school football in Texas, wanted to go to a school that had great academics. Committed to former Michigan QB Jim Harbaugh
Landry Jones (Oklahoma): Grew up loving Big12, but other two finalists were Colorado and UCLA. Michigan could have been in there.
Tyler Bray (Tennessee): California kid, who wanted to leave home and play for a football powerhouse.
Andrew Hendrix (Notre Dame): Ohio kid who had OSU and ND as finalists.
Would you have complained about any of them, assuming we would not have switched offenses for a few years?
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
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